2025.03.12 -- In balance, inflation rate news on deck this morning

I’m working on a glossary of the concepts here, if you want to follow along, I’ll have it up in the next day or two! See the end of this email for additional information on how you can get up to speed and really learn how to read these markets.

Not much happened yesterday, and we remain in balance from the Monday drop…

So basically the plot is the same as yesterday…mildly bullish-ish if they can stay above yesterday’s Value Area High, with increasing levels of bullishness getting above last week’s levels above. As of now, they haven’t even gotten close to last week’s value area at all.

What we do know: Inflation rate at 8:30am, they often like to trade up into events, and we know that during and after the event they can goose it or dump it. And those of us in the know know that the outcome of the news doesn’t matter to a day timeframe trader, but the price movement itself does.

Overall, they still haven’t made it to 2024 POC. They can. Not saying they will, but they often stop short, then finally finish the job when you’re not expecting it. So I want to make sure you’re not surprised if they do, and be ready. Especially on days where there’s plenty of excuses to be volatile (which is today, tomorrow, and to a lesser degree Friday).

Key Trading events

In summary, I’m looking long if they can get past yesterdays spike, and start moving fast towards last week’s 3 sig low, but don’t trust any of the bullish moves fully until past 2 sigma low of the previous week. We are still in a downtrend, and rips are being sold. So firstly i’m looking for a failure of yesterday’s Value Area High, and if they decide to take a trip up, I’m looking for rejections along the way to 3 sig, 2 sig, and previous week’s Value Area Low, which coincides with the previously mentioned 99% edge of the election pump zone: