2025.03.13 - Can economic data give it a goose?

Still in balance, fearfully inching higher, and a correction in longer term levels

Author

n qracky
March 13, 2025

Terms and definitions!

As promised, I put together a brief glossary of some of the terms used in this newsletter, as I got great feedback that this is not for the unseasoned. I hope you can continue to take a peek as you learn along the way.

https://markets.jonmadison.com/posts/trading_glossary/

The big picture situation

Here we are, after three days in, still in balance in a trend down situation. Is this the consolidation pause before the next leg down, or will we find some relief upwards after the numbers?

Yesterday’s inflation data goosed us a tiny bit, then we lost it all by the end of the day, basically sideways pretty much in the same range as we have been since Monday so all in all? No change, and the overall destination is down, until it’s not.

Every day they do, but especially today, they have an opportunity to move the tape in the upwards direction, to try to get back into last week’s range, around 8:30a.m., due to the Retail Sales news event. Can she do it?


Not much else to report here. same shortable ranges as yesterday (which, if you got in a little early, you made a little change on the way down): 2, 3 sigma low of previous week, previous week value area low. The way I see it, she’s bullish only when she starts getting into any of last week’s areas, at a minimum.

A correction in levels

As I was looking at the “shortable” levels, I wanted to show a range to you, which was the range created since election night through the end of that balance and a correction is in order, As I had to adjust. I’ll share it here, and let you note the difference. The biggest difference is that I included our breakout below that range in my measurement, and should not have. So here you go, the corrected chart:

It’s important to note that we broke out after losing all election gains , around the beginning of March, and are far extended away from that range. Today would be a good opportunity to goose the tape to try to get back into that area, low likelihood, but always a possibility…anything can happen!

Where you see the most congestion (lots of linesJ) is where you will find the most resistance, or the most violent push upwards through it. Again. This could happen today, could be another week, another month, but just something to be aware of. currently, the trend is still down, and there’s still unfinished business to retest below at the 2024 POC and 2024 VAL.

Here’s to patience, confidence, and learning!