2025.07.03 what i'm looking at this week

🌟 Welcome!

What a dump Friday — she lost all of July in a matter of two days. That’s the market for you. But that $MSFT ( ▲ 1.03% ) pump was nice, and even with the dump, she remains still at a W position.

Did we spike the low and are in the process of trying to rip back upwards in the balance? Or, can we continue this down move to work off some of this buying frenzy?

A reminder, as I bring up some of these terms. This glossary may be helpful to you:

https://nqrack.com/posts/trading_glossary

📸 The Big Picture

Let’s look at the potential scenarios.

Overall, the market is still bullish. Since our april lows, we’ve been seeking value higher, and a revisit of those levels seems unlikely, any time soon. however, August is historically a down month for tech, and our weekly chart seems to give us something that bolsters a bias. to the downside, at least near term.

Let’s look at the weekly chart — we have some room to drop, if they wanted to, as we are still a bit extended above the 20 period moving average.

But, while our weekly drop was significant (enough to erase all of july’s gains!) it was on relatively lower volume.

Let’s zoom in. I’m biased neutral-bearish this week so, any higher numbers will appear on my daily overview if we get there, but currently, i’m biased towards them doing a little consolidation within what’s forming as a current range, or doing some more dropping before popping again, and we have plenty of numbers we can visit.

our VPOCs are always magnetic as she goes down, as well as often providing at least a nice scalping opportunity, while less so a complete reversal (for that, we have our absolute lows marked, and sometimes we get our halfback or fib level V shaped recoveries). So, with that said, if she doesn’t gap up in the overnight, july’s lows are great reversal opportunities, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see us visit some great retest levels, say 22418.25, and, a very nice one at 22041.75, which is not only a multi week VPOC area, but the cPOC from a break up area consolidation. this region will see strong long support from me. If they lse it for a significant time, there’s significant trouble for the bulls. It’s quiet enough for us to not even visit there this week, but here’s what I’m talking about, so you’ll get the picture.

I’ll do you one better, here’s the chart so you can see it up close for yourself:

📰 News

Not a big scheduled news week so no major catalysts anticipated, save for our normal daily madness these days, so keep an eye out.

Here’s to patience, learning, and profits! 🫡🫡🫡