[Correction] 2025.03.18 - Broke out of the box (for the most part..but...)

Overview: Things have NOT changed (okay maybe just a little)

I’m going to post a slightly balance area as I have been, because this is important. Things technically have not changed. Previously, I had been referencing a balance area, but with one key difference: I was taking the value area from after the dump until the present moment. This week, I decided to take the FVP from Monday at 6a.m. and lo and behold…what so many kept talking about as a rally…was still an attempt to break out of a balance that she has not yet gotten out of. Yesterday, she peeked above the 3 sigma high of that balance, and was rejected, with prejudice! If you would have used the previous balance I range I had been showing, it may have fooled you into thinking they were breaking out, when reality is, they’re still trying to break back into what was lost last Monday.

In fact, overnight, she fell back within the 2 sigma high of this balance, but I will give it to her, she’s still floating around the top of it.

Not much has changed, except that as long as she stays above the 7d Value area High, she’s trying to spend some time to make the move higher, out of the actual balance area. So all in all, a bullish-ish-ish day, trending bull-ish-ish, so I won’t take that away from her. But some folks need to chill with the thumbnails on YouTube (okay so my post thumbnail probably doesn’t help either. lol).

Retail sales news movement: what I saw with my own eyes

It’s worth noting (to me, at least, haha), what I saw with my own eyes, as the Retail sales was announced yesterday morning. You got your typical wacky candle, both ways, but far more muted than a confident market is, followed by weak follow through, in fact a little dump, but an eventual working to some numbers that they were gonna get to anyway sooner or later. What you would usually see in a more confident market is perhaps an instantaneous shakeout dump followed by a confident pump up, with some immediate follow through. That was not yesterday. It took ‘em all the way to 1pm to get some confidence to start trying to go where they could have gotten to far earlier in confident market conditions.

In Summary

Same story as last week, she’s still in the balance, and I’m personally playing accordingly until told otherwise. there’s a nice range between the 7d VAH and yesterday’s afternoon spike (another term to add to the glossary I know) down/7d 3 sigma hi and i’m willing to long and short on those edges during the day without hesitation. I’ll even take a retest of PDVAH if they crack it, above. That said, I’m just saying i’m not going to be shocked one bit if we lose the 7d balance and begin to head back down to the POC of the balance, at a minimum, before we make our way up. Not saying it will happen, but it most certainly can happen. and if she loses that, well, we know our zones below.

We have more news at 8:30am today (Housing starts), for now looks like paint drying until at least then.

It’s a lot, so I’ll share my currently messy chart, hopefully it’ll be helpful. (which I’ll keep updated as needed):

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JbEskT4R/

Here’s to confidence, learning, and profits!