what i'm looking at this week 2025.09.28

🌟 Welcome!

A quick heads up, given i’m one person, day job in hand, bills in another. I’m not fully scaled in on the newsletter. I might try my hand at the Dow this week, so if you do not see frequent updates, that will be why. If you ever have questions remember you can hit me up at [email protected] and I’ll try to answer as soon as I can.

📸 The Big Picture

So, we filled a gap last week, and have been hovering above it, but we are above it. we also closed right above the prior week's value area. it's weakly bullish, or, bullish-ish as I like to say. That said, we are inside the value area created during the week.

Thursday they fell to, but bounced at an expected level that I had on the chart…

…a half back between the prior weeks' POC and VAL, but it managed to create a pretty strong support level, at least in the near term. they then retested to make a higher low, which also happens to be our current PWVAL and 2, 3 sigma lows (making for a potentially solid bounce level)

Some of these strong levels, can be taken out with strong news. And we have a week of strong news. Will they trade down to retest this week, continue higher? or bounce it lower for the some spring recovery action?

The way I see it, under normal conditions, they can easilyr etest that halfback below, and even complete the move lower to the area they've since avoided for over a week, the VPOC @ 24345.25 (our green zone) I've still been waiting for that area to buy with more than a hand, but the more they threaten it and just not make it there, i can't be as sure, and will play it to see how they make it there.

If they decide not to revisit there, they're already currently nicely extended above Friday’s value area high. so the next rational target may be a test to see if they can break out of our current weekly value area. There are some single prints above she can fly through, or get smacked down from.

At the open, and Monday i'll be watching Friday’s spike. So far hours they're still inside the zone, so it wouldn't surprise me if they visited below 24707.25 and even previous day’s value area high again, before moving ahead.

Pushing above the spike end and falling back in won't be great news if it happens during the session. dipping below the spike, and closing below yesterday’s value area high is going to give us our lower POC’s below, which would just make for some healthy market action.

So, a couple of possible scenarios:

• rally up to the singe prints quickly. then get smacked down into the green zone

• Lose spike base and into PDVAH again for more downside

• Take out the single prints, moving through it hastily to attempt to take out PWVAH, and beyond

• something else. Anything can happen.

We'll keep an eye out. Given the amount of news this week. all of those things are easily on the table; it's a matter of when.

Here’s a map.

📰 News This week

These are some big ones, so keep an eye out.


Here’s to patience, learning, and profits! 🫡🫡🫡